Is the Global Order Changing?

01/10/2018

Last week UN assembly laugh of Donald Trump, meanwhile, China is becoming global leader in political, economic and environmental issues over the next three decades.  PRC is already on its way to becoming a superpower in the key areas of science and innovation, all the while, the west seems to be asleep at the wheel, but China is not the enemy

 

China is not only the second economy in the world. Actually, the Middle Country is the second-largest spender on research and development (R&D) after the US, accounting for 21% of the world’s total of nearly $2 trillion in 2015.  But China’s investments on R&D grew by an average of 18%, more than four times faster than US spending.

According to data, PRC’s rapid growth means it is likely to take the lead within the next ten years, even less. Experts stated research and development is an universal indicator of investment in technology and future capabilities, thus plays a critical role in the innovation process and the creation of new products and services.

 

China is now an innovation superpower and this modern “Great Leap Forward” have student as basis. China is investing huge amount of money to modernize its educational system and results are coming.

 

Another key measure of innovation and technological advances is the number of students studying science and technology. Here too, China is excelling and has already overtaken America.  Between 2000 and 2014, the annual number of Chinese graduates in science and engineering went from about 359,000 to 1.65 million. Over the same period, the comparable number of US graduates went from about 483,000 to 742,000. Partly because of the size of its population.

An innovative and modern economy needs a workforce with high levels of engineering and science skills, plus requires an education system that can provide these workers.

China’s new generation of engineers or scientists are turning innovation into reality, plus those  people also venturing into more demanding and high-tech areas, such as aerospace, supercomputers and smaller jetliners, as well as its more traditional expertise in assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere.

Are we facing a new global order? Maybe. At least three competing versions of the future world order crashed together at the same time. There is US administration, calling for a full-scale US retreat from the current order. Another came from Chinese leaders who proposed a new global economic system built around Beijing. Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, France or Canada, urged western leaders to double down on the current liberal order.

 

It would be a mistake to dismiss the question as empty grandstanding. This debate is extremely serious. The outcomes will likely determine the future of global stability and the security and prosperity of everyone.

 

The old global liberal order was purposefully designed by the US and its western allies. Washington helped to compose United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the World Trade Organization, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

But the same country that built up the world as we know, is now moving back. The new is speaking Chinese. By the way, if the leaders of major countries and international organizations cannot see eye to eye, we are in for a very rough ride.

We are living in abnormal times, where international system itself is exposed to profound instability. But if some countries are asking a better dialogue to create a real international win-win collaboration, others are deft and bling, moving forward instead hearing critics.  

The question is, people around the world have the idea that US administration are not capable of fully understanding what is happening in real time. And our world leaders are laughing at Donald Trump, like last week in UN assembly. Never, in more than 200 years of american history, a US president was protagonist of such episode. What a shame.

 

The spectacular rise of China over the past two decades and the relative decline of the US mean that sparks are bound to fly. PRC is in the way of surpassing the US economically.

 

By one measure, 35% of world growth from 2017 to 2019 will come from China, 18% from the US, 9% from India, and 8% from Europe. By 2050, the top five largest global economies are most likely to be China, India, the US, Brazil and Indonesia. Is the west even remotely prepared for this kind of world?

In Western countries we still have prejudices concerning China. We thought that Beijing is a threat, not an opportunity, and this is such big mistake. China is leading the largest urbanization and infrastructure development scheme on earth, but still needs foreing know-how. PRC is doing huge investments to modernize its infostructures.

Already in its fifth year, the $900 billion “BRI” project includes new roads, shipping lanes and building projects stretching to over 65 countries. The idea is to literally rewire global trade from China throughout Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

China is set to become a global green powerhouse. After Washington step-back, Being signalled its intention to take the lead on climate change reduction after signing the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

According to chinese leadership, by 2025, most new cars in China will be fully electric vehicles. Plus China is aggressively cutting coal usage, encouraging green power such as solar plant or wind plant. The country also committed to achieving blue skies in all of its major cities within three years and the changes are already being felt: Beijing air is 30% cleaner this winter than last winter.

 

PRC is also leading fintech sector and e-commerce, including cashless payments. From Urumqi to Shenzhen, from Harbin to Canton, up to 90% of all commercial and retail transactions in convenience stores and cafes are occurring through Alipay and Wechat.

 

Hema‘s cashless store, supported by Alibaba, are the future of new retail, plus Chinese e-commerce is growing year by year. Players such as JD.com or Alibaba are no inferior comparing with Amazon. For example, Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant delivery system, is the currently the fastest in the world, plus Alibaba, thanks to its Shopping Festival racked up sales of $25 billion in just one day – dwarfing the returns of so-called Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the US.

All the while, the west seems to be asleep at the wheel. All the while, the west seems to be asleep at the wheel. Faced with threats ranging from climate change to massive technological advancement, the world is in desperate need of stable and able global governance.

But if we look to the US, in particular who is sitting inside White House, immediately we understand how Western countries lack the incentive systems to address higher-order and longer-term imperatives.

But in Zhongnanhai, PRC’s Presidential office, everything is different. Well, nowadays international community thought that Beijing is a more reasonable and conscious partner than US. Thus, populism and the rise of parochial economic nationalism are the gravest threats to future stability.

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